Why we won't have a long term bear market, and how to systematically pick your future investments in crypto
With so much uncertainty right now it would be a good time to take some time to go over what happened recently and how to invest moving foward. We've seen a peak bubble at around 850 billion total market cap in the first week of January, consolidated down to $750 billion and have now just experienced a 40% correction.
What's happening now and how bad will it get?
First of all you should realize that there is a January Dip that happens every year, when we see a roughly 20-30% decline around mid January. This year its been much more severe though for several additional factors that have compounded on top. Different theories exist on why this happens (its actually the mirror opposite of the "January Effect" that happens in the US stock market), but the two major theories are: 1) Asian markets pull into fiat because of Asian New Year spending needs 2) People in the US sell in January to defer their capital gains tax liability an extra year While this cyclic event has lead to a healthy correction in the last few years, this year we got these new factors making more fear as well:
We had a new breed of speculators come in during the NovembeDecember timeframe after media made cryptocurrency mainstream following the Bitcoin 10K landmark. While cryptocurrency markets have always had too much hype, the latest rise wasn't just over-enthusiasm in fundamentally sound cryptocurrencies like Monero and Ethereum, but mass inflows of fiat into vaporware and complete nonsense without any use case. Many people came in to essentially gamble on symbols on an exchange, and are thus short term oriented and quick to sell on any slight downturn, which such further adds to selling pressure.
So in essence we got a storm of scary news along with the usual cyclic downturn. Currently I don't see this as being a systematic crash like Mt.Gox was that would lead to a long term bear market because the fundamental ecosystem is still intact, and I suspect that after about a month we should consolidate around a new low. All the exchanges are still operational and liquid, and there is no breakdown in trust nor uncertainty whether you'll be able to cash out. What range the market trades in will all depend how Bitcoin does, right now we've already broken below 10K but I'm seeing a lot of support at around $8000, which is roughly where the long term MA curve settles. We don't know how bad it will get or what the future will bring, but as of right now we shouldn't be in a bear market yet. What should you do if you recently entered the market? If you did buy in the last few months at or near ATH, the very worst thing you can do now is sell in panic and lose your principal. You shouldn't have more money in crypto than you can afford to lose, so it shouldn't be a problem to wait. You have to realize that 30% corrections in crypto are relatively common, just last fall we had a 40% flash correction over more China fears. Unless there is a systematic breakdown like we had during Mt.Gox, the market always recovers. The other worst thing you can do is unload into Tether as your safety net. If there is one thing that could actually cause a long term destruction of trust within the cryptocurrency investment ecosystem, its Tether having a run up on their liabilities and not having enough reserve to cover the leverage. It would not only bring down exchanges but lead to years of litigation and endless media headlines that will scare off everybody from putting fiat in. I don't know when the next Mt.Gox meltdown will occur but I can almost guarantee it will involve Tether. So stay away from it. What should long term investors do? For long term holders a good strategy to follow each year is to capture profit each December and swallow the capital gains taxation liability, park a reserve of fiat at Gemini (whose US dollar deposits are FDIC-insured) and simply wait till around late January to early February to re-enter the market at a discount and hold all year until next December. You can keep a small amount in core coins in order to trade around various Q1 opportunities you anticipate. Others may choose to simply do nothing and just keep holding throughout January which is also a perfectly fine strategy. The cyclical correction usually stabilizes toward late January and early February, then we see a rise in March and generally are recovered by end of April. Obviously this decision whether to sell in December to profit on the dip and pay tax liability or to just hold will depend on your individual tax situation. Do your own math sometime in November and follow suit. Essentially revaluate your positions and trim your position sizes if you don't feel comfortable with the losses.
How to construct your portfolio going forward
Rather than seeing the correction as a disaster see it as a time to start fresh. If you have been FOMO-ing into bad cryptos and losing money now is a time to start a systematic long term approach to investing rather than gambling. Follow a methodology for evaluating each cryptocurrency Memes and lambo dreams are fun and all, but I know many of you are investing thousands of dollars into crypto, so its worth it to put some organized thought into it as well. I can't stress enough how important it is to try and logically contruct your investment decisions. If you follow a set methodology, a checklist and template you will be able to do relative comparisons between cryptocurrencies, to force yourself to consider the negatives and alternative scenarios and also sleep comfortably knowing you have a sound basis for your investment decisions (even if they turn out to be wrong). There is no ideal or "correct" methodology but I can outline mine: 1) Initial information gathering and filtering Once I identify something that looks like a good potential investment, I first go to the CoinMarketCap page for that symbol and look at the website and blockchain explorer.
Critically evaluate the website. This is the first pass of the bullshit detector and you can tell from a lot from just the website whether its a scam. If it uses terms like "Web 4.0" or other nonsensical buzzwords, if its unprofessional and has anonymous teams, stay away. Always look for a roadmap, compare to what was actually delivered so far. Always check the team, try to find them on LinkedIn and what they did in the past.
Read the whitepaper or business development plan. You should fully understand how this crypto functions and how its trying to create value. If there is no use case or if the use case does not require or benefit from a blockchain, move on. Look for red flags like massive portions of the float being assigned to the founders of the coin, vague definition of who would use the coin, anonymous teams, promises of large payouts...etc
Check the blockchain explorer. How is the token distribution across accounts? Are the big accounts holding or selling? Which account is likely the foundation account, which is the founders account?
Read the subreddit and blogs for the cryptocurrency and also evaluate the community. Try to figure out exactly what the potential use cases are and look for sceptical takes. Look at the Github repos, does it look empty or is there plenty of activity?
2) Fill out an Investment Checklist I have a checklist of questions that I find important and as I'm researching a crypto I save little snippets in Evernote of things that are relevant to answering those questions:
What is the problem or transactional inefficiency the coin is trying to solve?
What is the Dev Team like? What is their track record? How are they funded, organized?
Who is their competition and how big is the market they're targeting? What is the roadmap they created?
What current product exists?
How does the token/coin actually derive value for the holder? Is there a staking mechanism or is it transactional?
What are the weaknesses or problems with this crypto?
3) Create some sort of consistent valuation model/framework, even if its simple I have a background in finance so I like to do Excel modeling. For those who are interested in that, this article is a great start and also Chris Burniske has a great blog about using Quantity Theory of Money to build an equivalent of a DCF analysis for crypto. Here is an Excel file example of OMG done using his model. You can download this and play around with it yourself, see how the formulas link and understand the logic. Once you have a model set up the way you like in Excel you can simply alter it to account for various float oustanding schedule and market items that are unique to your crypto, and then just start plugging in different assumptions. Think about what is the true derivation of value for the coin, is it a "dividend" coin that you stake within a digital economy and collect fees or is it a currency? Use a realistic monetary velocity (around 5-10 for currency and around 1-2 for staking) and for the discount rate use at least 3x the long term return of a diversified equity fund. The benefit is that this forces you to think about what actually makes this coin valuable to an actual user within the digital economy its participating in and force you to think about the assumptions you are making about the future. Do your assumptions make sense? What would the assumptions have to be to justify its current price? You can create different scenarios in a matrix (optimistic vs. pessimistic) based on different assumptions for risk (discount rate) and implementation (adoption rates). If you don't understand the above thats perfectly fine, you don't need to get into full modeling or have a financial background. Even a simple model that just tries to derive a valuation through relative terms will put you above most crypto investors. Some simple valuation methods that anyone can do
Metcalfe's Law which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). So you can compare various currencies based on their market cap and square of active users or traffic.
Another easy one is simply looking at the total market for the industry that the coin is supposedly targeting and comparing it to the market cap of the coin. Think of the market cap not only with circulating supply like its shown on CMC but including total supply. For example the total supply for Dentacoin is 1,841,395,638,392, and when multiplied by its price in early January we get a market cap that is actually higher than the entire industry it aims to disrupt: Dentistry.
If its meant to be just used as just a currency: Take a look at the circulating supply and look at the amount that is in cold storage or set to be released/burned. Most cryptos are deflationary so think about how the float schedule will change over time and how this will affect price.
Once you have a model you like set up, you can compare cryptos against each other and most importantly it will require that you build a mental framework within your own mind on why somebody would want to own this coin other than to sell it to another greater fool for a higher price. Modeling out a valuation will lead you to think long term and think about the inherent value, rather than price action. Once you go through this 3-step methodology, you'll have a pretty good confidence level for making your decision and can comfortably sit back and not panic if some temporary short term condition leads to a price decrease. This is how "smart money" does it. Think about your portfolio allocation You should think first in broad terms how you allocate between "safe" and "speculative" cryptos. For new investors its best to keep a substantial portion in what would be considered largecap safe cryptos, primarily BTC, ETH, LTC. I personally consider XMR to be safe as well. A good starting point is to have between 50-70% of your portfolio in these safe cryptocurrencies. As you become more confident and informed you can move your allocation into speculative small caps. You should also think in terms of segments and how much of your total portfolio is in each segment:
You should also think about where we are in the cycle, as now given so much uncertaintly its probably best to stay heavily in core holdings and pick up a few coins within a segment you understand well. If you don't understand how enterprise solutions work or how the value chain is built through corporations, don't invest in the enteprise blockchain solutions segment. If you are a technie who loves the technology behind Cardano or IOTA, invest in that segment. Think of your "circle of competence" This is actually a term Buffet came up with, it refers to your body of knowledge that allows you to evaluate an investment. Think about what you know best and consider investing in those type of coins. If you don't know anything about how supply chains functions, how can you competently judge whether VeChain or WaltonChain will achieve adoption? This where your portfolio allocation also comes into play. You should diversify but really shouldn't be in much more than around 12 cryptos, because you simply don't have enough competency to accurately access the risk across every segment and for every type of crypto you come across. If you had over 20 different cryptos in your portfolio you should probably think about consolidating to a few sectors you understand well. Continually educate yourself about the technology and markets If you aren't already doing it: Read a bit each day about cryptocurrencies. There are decent Youtubers that talk about the market side of crypto, just avoid those that hype specific coins and look for more sceptical ones like CryptoInvestor. If you don't understand how the technology works and what the benefits of a blockchain are or how POS/POW works or what a DAG is or how mining actually works, learn first. If you don't care about the technology or find reading about it tedious, you shouldn't invest in this space at all.
Summing it up
I predicted a few days ago that we would have a major correction in 2018 specifically in the altcoins that saw massive gains in Decemebeearly January, and it seems we've already had a pretty big one. I don't think we'll have a complete meltdown like some are predicting, but some more pain may be incoming. Basically take this time to think about how you can improve your investment style and strategy. Make a commitment to value things rather than chasing FOMO, and take your time to make a decision. Long term investment will grant you much more returns as will a systematic approach. Take care and have fun investing :) Edit March 2018: Lol looking back I'm regretting starting the title with "Why we won't have a long term bear market" now, I was more karma whoring with that catchy title than anything. We recovered up to 11K from this post, but then crashed again hard later in February-March because of a slew of reasons from Tether subpeona to unforseen regulatory issues.
setup an account on coinbase.com, buy your coins, walk away until next year or later, fees are ~1.5% which is $1.5 USD for a $100 USD of coin
note coinbase does have an option to buy via credit card instead of a bank account, fees are ~4% when you do that, your credit card company may charge more if it considers it a cash transfer
Guide for Not Noobs
-setup an account on coinbase.com, move dollars into your account, setup an account on gdax.com (same company, same login), move your cash from coinbase to gdax, buy your coins on GDAX at Market, fees are cheaper 0.25% versus 1.5% -consider buying alternative coins supported by coinbase
-all of the above but use GDAX's Limit/Buy, zero fees, but you have to wait for the market to dip below your buy price
More Money Available
-setup several Limit/Buy orders at different price points to capture dips when you are away
More Control but More Complex
-it's possible coinbase could go out of business, move some or most of your coins to a personal hardware wallet like a Trezor or Ledger Nano S, made in Czech Republic and France respectively -consider using other exchanges with different fees and coin support -consider buying other alternative coins supported by other exchanges
You Are Very Responsible
-create a paper wallet, put it in a safe, be warned it's like a visual bearer instrument, if you lose it or someone takes a picture of it...it's gone, but you have complete control over your money/asset
DO NOT EVER
-buy more than you can lose, it's early wild west days, the market could easily come crashing down -panic sell, the market fluctuates regularly by 20%, thus far it has ALWAYS recovered, people that try to sell during a fall/dip and buy at the bottom usually miss time it and lose -store your keys on your computer or phone unless its small amount, these are the two most vulnerable routes to hacking and simple hardware failure resulting in loss -attempt to daytrade and time the best prices unless your real life job is day trading -get addicted to watching the market, pay attention watch for dips, but don't let it crowd out your work or free time -keep a LOT of cash or coin in an exchange, it is very easy to mistype and buy or sell far more than you meant to, exchanges can disappear with your coins -buy a hardware wallet from anyone other than the company who makes it, i.e. do not buy one on Amazon, it is possible some third person hacked it and could steal your coin
-limit sells until the far future when market volatility is down, flash crashes have happened and recovered, if you had all your coin in limit sells it would be gone -margin trade unless your real life job is day trading -stop buys or stop sells unless your real life job is day trading
-hold your coins, your coin may be worth x10 or more in value in the future, e.g. if bitcoin replaced gold, bitcoin would be worth ~x70 the current value -buy small amounts over time DCA, this might not seem intuitive but it spreads your risk out, reduces risk of buying at all time highs (ATH) and more likely to catch lows (dips), a fluctuation of $100 in price is small if the eventual value is worth x10 or more in the future -keep a small amount of cash on an exchange always, when there is a lot of traffic/trading which happens during dips, you are much more likely to be able to make trades on an exchange rather than with your own wallet
-if you don't have your coin in your own wallet, it's not your coin. this is not a problem until you have a lot of value and you want to keep it safe from a bankruptcy, unscrupulous people/exchanges, or unforeseen acts. if it's a small amount compared to your income it's an acceptable risk, if not then move it to a wallet -in the days of fake news not everything you read is true, in fact there are armies of people shilling for 'pick a random coin'; some are malicious, some uninformed, and some willfully uninformed -if your value starts to become large, dig deep into how your asset/currencies work just like you would for any other purchase, understanding how it works helps you understand if it will be a success, e.g. understand the difference between PoW vs PoS or what a hard fork is -some coins especially newer ones are scams, a good indication of if it is not a scam is how long the coin has been around -most bitcoin hard forks so far have not been successful with some exceptions -btc is the accepted short-name for bitcoin on most (but not all) exchanges, xbt is also common in EUR-land
-holding your own coin requires personal responsibility, it is easy to lose and not be able to recover it if you are not careful -again, do not buy more coin than you can lose -transaction speeds which are slow are a serious problem in bitcoin scaling -there is less innovation and more argument going on in bitcoin than some other coins, bitcoin is large enough that consensus is difficult, future change is less likely than with some other coins, there are other side solutions to bitcoins problems that may not require bitcoin to change much -bitcoin.org IS the generally accepted bitcoin website, NOT bitcoin.com -important other risks compiled by themetalfriend -coinbase has insurance up to $250k USD for you USD Wallet which DOES NOT cover your bitcoins or other crypto currencies, they claim to have separate insurance for your crypto currency but it is unclear how much
there are a lot of memes -hodl, GameKyuubi mistyped hold and it spread -to the moon, where everyone hopes the price will go -coin on a rollercoaster, it is highly volitile market you will see this during fluctuations -this is gentlemen, via Liquid_child , here -lambo/roadster, a car people want to buy when they get rich -the cost of pizza, early days someone bought a pizza for 10,000btc which is worth over ~80million USD today -tesla/vehicle with a bitcoin chart, cytranic posted a picture that spread -intersting guide by stos313 , here. I do not agree with everything but it has a lot of useful information.
Edit: Adding in user comments. Edit: Crosslinking to a more Beginner Version. Edit: Note in an earlier edit of this guide I said. note that most of the development on bitcoin is by employees of one company, it is open source but their priorities may not align with the community This is not true. Blockstream appears to have a high representation but not an overwhelming amount. You can compare blockstream's employee page and bitcoin's commits in the last year. Thank you to lclc_ , trilli0nn , and Holographiks for pointing this out. See this for a detailed break down. Edit: Clarification that FDIC insurance does NOT cover crypto currency/assets. Edit: Clarity on who owns bitcoin.org
Good Luck and Hodl.
Please comment if your experience is different. Or call out things I missed.
I got fired 3 week ago and got into depression, one of my best friends is a crypto trader. Instead of feeling shitty he want to teach me everything about crypto and he said that it might help me to understand the normal 9-6 job life is not the only way. here are the tips and resources he gave me:
i’m sharing it here because i’m sure that there are other people in my situation too and it will be great if i can help you exactly like how my friend helped me. What i’m sharing here is what i wrote on my notebook while he was pitching the basics of crypto trading, I summarized it into few lists so it will be easier for you to follow: General tips:
If your mom send you a message asking “how to buy bitcoin”? it means you need to sell yours (not to her of course :P)
Don’t put all your money on the exchange (he lost in the past some money on mt.gox).
If you’re too lazy to print a paper wallet or so cheap you can’t buy Trezor, so don’t cry if you make some stupid mistakes and lose your login details/ get hacked.
Don’t be afraid from charts, After you will get into trading you will find technical analysis like a children’s game, you just need to look for shapes and mark a line to understand where the risk is and than use your instincts, your brain(he claimed i don’t have any) and some useful new resources (i share them later on).
there is too much information, if you will try to focus everything it will kill you and you will spend most of your profits on Advil. arrange yourself a useful resources and a comfortable working environment.
Listen to Lofi while you trade/make decisions.
don’t join random telegram groups or pump and dump groups. no-one open a traders group and invite you just because you have a beautiful smile. 97% of them have hidden interest. Try to attend for a local bitcoin meet up in your hometown or near by and than meet REAL people and REAL traders. Ask them if they have a friends traders group and ask to join, If they don’t agree say the
Altcoins - Vs. Bitcoin and Vs. USD: it's important to analyse the price against Bitcoin and against USD as well. Most major altcoins have huge USD trading
What goes down – does not necessarily go up again: “I’ve seen Altcoins like Aurora which came down 99.99% of its record”.
Day trading is a job. Consider the time spending on it when calculating your gains and losses.
Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket: Diversify your crypto portfolio, and it's not shame to hedge to cash sometimes
don’t risk something you can’t afford to lose.
resources: “Give a man a good signal and he made profit for day, Teach him how to trade and will make a profit for a day “ (I made it now… And I wonder why I got fired) :P He shared with me many of his resources and said that I need to check them to understand which one are useful for me and which isn’t. News & Educational Websites:
CryptFlix - This site is a great way to learn about blockchain and the crypto market while watching videos. They have a cool UX that reminds Netflix and you will find it easy to spend few hours watching super cool and educating videos. cryptflix.com
CryptoPotato - Great educational website for beginners and advanced. What I like the most about this guys is that they are doing market update each week, live technical analysis sessions (also answering questions) and it seems like they are super legit. https://cryptopotato.com/
BadBitcoin - This website will help you to avoid fraud (My friend said the word fraud like 20 times in the last 1 hour, I think this market have many problems!). http://www.badbitcoin.org/
The Age of Cryptocurrency: Recommended book. How Bitcoin and the Blockchain Are Challenging the Global Economic Order. I’m not sharing here a link so it won’t consider self promotion so just google the book name, it’s on amazon (the price is around 16$ but don’t be cheap on your education)
CryptoPanic - This website will save you a lot of time by summarizing news from all over the internet and let you know the sentiment of each article/post/tweet
Andreas M. Antonopoulos - This guy deserve a high five from satoshi nakomoto. He wrote the book “ Mastering Bitcoin” and dedicating his life to make the world understand bitcoin & blockchain. https://antonopoulos.com/
Team (Who are they? do they have experience in the field of the ICO? They have linkedin, github, personal websites?)
Technology (Are they here to stay? Do you see a real usage in their tokens? They solve any problem?)
Social Media - do they have community of people that support them? Are they active on Facebook, Twitter, Medium, Telegram, Reddit?
Whitepapaer- Before you buy electronic product on Amazon do you read about it? do you do the research? Do the same when you invest in ICO. Read the Whitepaper to fully understand the idea and the potential
Mt. Gox suspended withdrawals in US dollars on June 20, 2013. The Mizuho Bank branch in Tokyo that handled Mt. Gox transactions pressured Mt. Gox from then on to close its account. On July 4, 2013, Mt. Gox announced that it had "fully resumed" withdrawals, but as of September 5, 2013, few US dollar withdrawals had been successfully completed Customer complaints about long delays were mounting as of February 2014, with more than 3,300 posts in a thread about the topic on the Bitcoin Talk online forum On 7 February 2014, Mt. Gox halted all bitcoin withdrawals A poll of 3,000 Mt. Gox customers by CoinDesk indicated that 68% of polled customers were still awaiting funds from Mt. Gox. The median waiting time was between one and three months, and 21% of poll respondents had been waiting for three months or more On 20 February 2014, with all withdrawals still halted, Mt. Gox issued yet another statement, not giving any date for the resumption of withdrawals On 24 February 2014, Mt. Gox suspended all trading, and hours later its website went offline, returning a blank page. Replace Mt Gox with QuadCX and what do we have here? Anyone want to bet the website is going to go offline in a few days?
Coinbase Binance Dance. Guide to Purchasing Altcoins.
Coinbase Binance Dance. Guide to purchasing altcoins.
The Coinbase Binance dance is a multi-step process used to purchase altcoins. (An altcoin is any cryptocurrency that is not Bitcoin). Reddit in particular is very fond of this method as it is commonly recommended to newcomers. How it works: You purchase Ethereum using Coinbase, send that Ethereum to your Binance account, then execute a trade selling said Ethereum for your cryptocurrency of choice. This is a process that seems very tedious and a bit complicated to crypto-newbies. No need to worry, I’m going to walk you through the process with photos included for visual aid. Using this method, you can purchase various types of cryptocurrencies including:
Etc… the list goes on. So long as it’s listed on Binance, you will be able to trade for the coin.
Both Coinbase and Binance are cryptocurrency exchanges you must sign up for in order to do this method. I recommend you create these accounts sooner rather than later as it can take a few days to get fully verified (especially for Coinbase). If you’re having issues, or questions, or would just like more information, I have full detailed tutorials regarding both Coinbase & Binance. See below:
Awesome! You’ve got the accounts created, now it’s time to do the dance. For the sake of this tutorial I’ll be purchasing the cryptocurrency XRP. Remember, this method works with any cryptocurrency so long as it’s listed on Binance.
Step 1: Make sure your token can be purchased with Ethereum. Go to Binance's home page and select ETH Markets use the search bar to look for your tokens ticker. See photo. If your token does not appear, check BTC Markets. If you see it there, you'll need to buy BTC and send it to Binance instead of ETH.
Step 2: Purchase Ethereum using Coinbase. See photo. For the lowest possible fee in Coinbase, link your bank account the downside is that it will take 5-7 business days for your funds to be available to send from your account. To have instant access to your funds, pay with a credit/debit card. The downside to this being that fees will be higher.
Step 3: Send your Ethereum from Coinbase to your Binance Ethereum wallet address. See photo.
Optional: Depending on your location, you may or may not have to pay a Coinbase transfer fee. If you see that you do and would rather not, you can mitigate this fee by sending your crypto to Coinbase Pro or GDAX then to Binance. If this otherwise does not concern you, please continue below. To find your Binance Ethereum wallet address, go to: Funds > Deposits > ETH - Ethereum and click Copy Address. See photo. Once you click confirm, you’ll be asked to complete 2-step verification provided by your phone. See photo. You can view the transaction in Coinbase. After a few minutes you’ll see confirmations coming through. Refresh the Binance deposits page as well and you’ll see confirmations. See photo. You’ll get two emails during this process. One from Coinbase, another from Binance. Cryptocurrency transactions are not instantaneous on the Ethereum blockchain. In this case it took ~6 minutes for this transfer to complete, however this may vary depending on how congested the network is. During high periods of high traffic on the Ethereum blockchain, you can expect it to take longer than 6 minutes so don’t worry if it’s taking longer. As long as you’re seeing confirmation, you should be good. See photo. Once you receive the Deposit Success Alerts email from Binance, go to Funds > Balances in Binance. You’ll see that you’re Ethereum balance has increased. See photo.
Step 4: In Binance, go to Exchange > Basic. You’ll be met with a screen that looks like this. See photo. I know this screen looks a bit confusing. It’s really not. First thing we need to do is make sure Ethereum (ETH) is set as our baseline currency for trade.
Step 5: Set Ethereum as baseline currency. See photo. You can see in that photo what is shown is all the possible cryptocurrencies pairings available with Ethereum.
Step 6: Use the search bar to search for the token’s ticker you’d like to purchase. See photo. In the case for Ripple, the ticker is XRP. If you don’t know your coins ticker, Google it.
Step 7: Set your prefered parameters and click Buy. See photo. The 25% 50% 75% and 100% buttons refer to how much of your set baseline funds you would like to dedicate towards your purchase. In my case, by clicking 100% I am saying I’d like to use 100% of my Ethereum funds to purchase XRP. Clicking 75% would be 75% of my ETH funds etc… The Amount and Totals sections are automatically filled out based off your % choice.
Step 8: Wait for your order to be filled! Depending on the market, your order may be filled right away or not. If you’re getting impatient you can always cancel the order and try again at a slightly higher price. If you’re going to edit the price per coin section, just be sure you don’t accidentally end up paying a ridiculously high amount. If you click into the price field a blurb will appear showing you how much you’re paying per coin. See photo.
Congratulations! You’ve just done the Coinbase Binanace dance. Wasn’t so hard was it? Once your order has been completely filled, the Funds > Balances page should reflect your purchase. See photo.
Lower Fees using BNB
It helps to purchase a little bit of Binance native token BNB to help save on fees. Make sure you enable it in your account settings! See photo. You can purchase BNB using the same method described above.
Selling your crypto.
Selling your crypto is a very similar process. In my instance with my XRP, if I wanted to sell that back to USD. I’d need to sell the XRP for Ethereum, then sell that Ethereum for USD on Coinbase. The process would look something like this:
Sell my XRP for Ethereum in Binance
Withdrawal the Ethereum from Binance to Coinbase
Sell the Ethereum for USD through Coinbase.
If you consider yourself a hodler, and do not plan to actively be making trades, I highly recommend you send your crypto to a hardware wallet such as the Ledger Nano S. Hardware wallets are a form of cold storage and are the safest way to store cryptocurrency. It is highly recommended you DO NOT store crypto on any exchange as exchanges themselves are prone to hacks (see Mt. Gox hack). I also highly recommend you secure your Binance and Coinbase accounts with 2-factor authentication (2FA) and google authenticator to reduce the risk of a hack.
In the end, be glad that you learned how to do this process! Figuring out how to actually purchase cryptocurrency is one of the most challenging things for newbies, and now that you have a Coinbase and Binance account setup, you have the ability to purchase 95% of coins. If you have any questions feel free to comment down below or send me a message. I’d be happy to help!
Frequently Asked Questions
Why not use Bitcoin to send to Binance. Why use Ethereum?
Transactions on the Ethereum blockchain are faster than Bitcoin's. Ethereum has a block time of ~15s, Bitcoin has a block time of ~10min. This means on average, Ethereum transactions will be faster than Bitcoins. Fees are also lower on the Ethereum blockchain so I consider Ethereum to be a much better bridge currency in the use of purchasing altcoins.
You could also use Litecoin if you wanted to. Litecoin has a smaller block time (2m 34s) compared to Bitcoin and the fees are much lower. To see block time data on blockchains, BitInfoCharts is a very good resource.
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A community for 2 years, 5,225 subscribers. Greekgodx is a youtuber who is mainly known because of steam-sniping popular csgo streamers and getting their chat to spam #ModGreek until the streamer caves in. He is from the Uk and has the sexiest British accent ever.
Bitcoin explained in plain English (so that you can explain this voodoo magic money to your mom)
Bitcoin explained in plain English Like Paypal and Visa, Bitcoin is a system that can send money digitally. The innovation that sets Bitcoin apart is that it isn’t controlled or operated by a single company. Instead of having a company like Visa run the system, anybody can join the Bitcoin network and participate in the record keeping that keeps Bitcoin running. Nobody owns the Bitcoin software or the Bitcoin network. If an oppressive government wants to shut down Bitcoin, it can’t simply go after a single company. An oppressive government would (in theory) have to go after everybody running Bitcoin server software on their computer to shut it down. In practice, the decentralization doesn’t actually work. Most people buy Bitcoins through exchanges run by private companies, which are subject to government-imposed laws and regulations. While Bitcoin’s innovation is interesting, it doesn’t actually do anything useful in the real world. However, very few people actually understand Bitcoin. So, journalists and cryptocurrency fanatics can make up fancy stories about how Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies will change the world. What Bitcoin is Bitcoin was originally designed to be a “Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System“. Think of other peer-to-peer systems like Napster or BitTorrent, except that users can exchange Bitcoins instead of files. Instead of having a single set of records controlled by one company, the set of records is copied to all the volunteer record keepers in the Bitcoin network. There can be hundreds or thousands of copies of the Bitcoin ledger distributed around the world. Changes to the ledger (from people sending Bitcoin to one another) are distributed throughout the network and each participant duplicates the record-keeping process on their copy of the ledger. This is the “distributed ledger” that everybody keeps talking about. All of this means that the Bitcoin network can run by itself. Anybody can join the network and help keep it running. Bitcoin in the real world Unfortunately the key benefit to Bitcoin (the “decentralization” everybody keeps talking about) doesn’t actually pan out in the real world. Most people get Bitcoins by buying them via a centralized exchange, which are all private companies that can be shut down or bullied by the government. As all developed countries have laws against money laundering, banks will enforce these laws and will refuse to do business with exchanges that may be enabling questionable activities like online gambling with Bitcoins. Cryptocurrencies are effectively regulated by governments around the world. The only practical alternative to exchanges is to trade Bitcoins in person. However, this defeats the main benefit of digital money as face-to-face transactions are inconvenient. It’s unlikely that a system that involves trading paper money for Bitcoins will revolutionize the world. Currently, the trend is that banks and credit card companies have been cutting off access to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Banks have to comply with anti-money laundering regulations so that they don’t intentionally or unintentionally help criminals profit from illegal activities. A key part of fighting money laundering is knowing who your customers actually are. Criminals are less likely to use a bank as part of their illegal activities (e.g. to trade stolen Bitcoins for cash) if the bank knows their true identity. However, Bitcoin was designed to be anonymous as stated by its inventor’s white paper. (Bitcoin doesn’t fully succeed in allowing for anonymous payments. However, the anonymity that it does offer is enough to be problematic.) Bitcoin’s design makes it difficult for banks to obey the law if they are to allow access to Bitcoin exchanges. This is one of the many reasons why Bitcoin is unlikely to become a mainstream payment method for goods and services. You can safely ignore the hype If somebody tries to explain Bitcoin to you and you don’t understand it, the problem isn’t you. The person explaining Bitcoin likely has some misguided understanding of Bitcoin because there are certain things that they want to believe. Some people want to look smart by being early believers in new technology that they don’t understand. Some journalists want to write clickbait stories. Some people want to believe in get-rich-quick schemes. Some people are getting rich quick through cryptocurrency-related scams. Whatever the case is, I wouldn’t worry about it. You aren’t missing out on a revolutionary new technology. Bitcoin’s only innovation is interesting but useless in the real world. Appendix A: What Bitcoin mining is (and why everybody is saying it’s bad for the environment) The problem with a set of records delivered over the Internet is that you don’t know if some stranger on the Internet has nefariously tampered with the version that they sent you. It is possible for somebody to cheat the system by spending Bitcoins and then distributing a copy of the ledger that leaves out their spending, allowing them to spend their Bitcoins again. Other users somehow have to figure out which version of history is correct. To prevent shenanigans, each node on the Bitcoin network will determine trust based on “proof of work“. Trust will go to the side that has spent/wasted the most computing power to back up their version of events. The theory is that the honest users will always control more computing power than dishonest users. To perform proof of work, Bitcoin “miners” do a set of very difficult mathematical calculations to try to find results with a certain number of zeroes in it. It’s basically computers competing over their ability to produce special numbers with a really long series of zeroes. Record keepers in the Bitcoin network (“nodes”) will trust the side that has wasted the most computing power. Because the math needed to find the special numbers is much harder than the math needed to verify the numbers (sort of like how Sudoku puzzles are harder to solve than to check), participants can easily verify which side wasted the most computing power. This is the key idea behind “blockchain“, the technology that tries to solve the problem of not being able to trust what strangers send you over the Internet. Honest record keepers will continue to add valid pages (blocks) to the Bitcoin journal. If the honest side controls more computing power, they will produce a longer chain of valid pages (blocks) than dishonest record keepers. Eventually, the honest record keepers’ version of events will be considered the authoritative one. This system works as long as honest users throw more computing power at the problem than dishonest users. A dishonest user cannot pass off a bogus version of events (such as one that omits their spending) unless that user has more computing power than all of the honest users combined. To make attacks from dishonest users very difficult, the Bitcoin system provides incentives to its users to maintain a large standing army of computers that are ready to waste more computing power than people trying to cheat the system. Bitcoins are given out to users who devote computing power towards the Bitcoin cause. This is called Bitcoin “mining”, as the miners exert effort and are rewarded with digital “gold”. The creation of new Bitcoins is part of Bitcoin’s design. If Bitcoin’s price averages $10,000, Bitcoin miners will receive $6.57 billion dollars worth of newly-printed Bitcoins in 2018 (1800 Bitcoins will be created every day in 2018). Bitcoin miners will also receive transaction fees from people who pay extra to have their transactions added to the ledger first (their transactions will be confirmed first). This might sound crazy but Bitcoin mining is on track to being a multi-billion dollar industry. Various companies will fight over their share of newly-printed Bitcoins. Competition will cause them to use a lot of electricity since electricity is the main ingredient needed to mine Bitcoins. Digiconomist has a webpage that estimates Bitcoin’s power consumption, which is currently about 1.3% of the United State’s energy consumption- that’s the same as millions of Americans. Bitcoin mining will consume as much energy as entire countries like Bangladesh. While Bitcoin mining is one way to get Bitcoins, it is very expensive for most people compared to buying Bitcoins on an exchange. This is because Bitcoin mining benefits from scale. Big companies such as Bitmain will spend millions of dollars on designing computers that do one thing and one thing only: mine Bitcoins. Think of a calculator: it is a computer that does only one thing. Because it is designed for only one task, it does it very well. A calculator is incredibly energy efficient and cheap compared to your smartphone or laptop computer. Similarly, a computer that is designed specifically for mining Bitcoins does it more cost-effectively than everyday computers. Without millions of dollars spent designing special computers, access to very cheap electricity, and large data centers, normal citizens can’t compete against Bitcoin mining juggernauts. These companies drive up the cost of mining Bitcoins (Bitcoin is designed so that fewer Bitcoins are produced if more computing power is spent on mining), pushing out the small fish. You will likely lose money if you try to mine Bitcoin on your home computer. Appendix B: Buzzwords and technobabble explained ICO: Initial coin offering, or “it’s a con offering”. Generally speaking, these are investment scams where investors exchange real money for fake money (or a stake in a fake business or Ponzi scheme). Immutable: can’t be changed. In theory, Bitcoin is designed so that the ledger can’t be changed. In the past, the ledger has been changed by the Bitcoin community banding together to fix bugs. One such bug allowed a hacker to give him or herself 184 billion Bitcoins. Trustless: This refers to a trust problem that only decentralized systems have; centralized systems don’t have this problem. For Bitcoin specifically, the problem is this: some stranger on the Internet sent me a journal of all Bitcoin transactions and I don’t know if I should trust it. Bitcoin’s key innovative technology, the blockchain, attempts to solve that problem so that decentralization can work. Blockchain: a journal of all (Bitcoin) transactions since the very beginning. Transactions are grouped together into chunks called blocks, which form the ‘pages’ of the journal. Miners solve difficult math puzzles so that they can attach special numbers to each block, proving that they spent a lot of computing power. A series (or chain) of blocks with the most computing power spent on ‘proving’ that chain will become the authoritative blockchain. This system works as long as the honest users waste more computer power and electricity than dishonest users. Decentralization: a system that works without a trusted central authority. Double spending: Cheating the system to spend the same Bitcoin two or more times, ultimately resulting in spending Bitcoins that you don’t have. Secure: An adjective that describes systems other than Bitcoin. For starters, Bitcoin was hacked to create 184 billion Bitcoins. When the Mt. Gox exchange was hacked, at least 5% of all Bitcoins at the time (at least 650,000) were stolen. Many people also lose Bitcoins due to their computer being hacked, being tricked into giving away their passwords or identity, or from malicious browser add-ons. Bitcoin also has outstanding security issues that haven’t been fixed. If a single party controls 51% of the world’s Bitcoin mining power, that mining power can be used to disrupt the Bitcoin network. Currently, more than 51% of the world’s mining power is controlled by Chinese companies.
My draft for a new /r/btc FAQ explaining the split from /r/Bitcoin to new users
If /btc is going to actually compete with /Bitcoin, it needs to be just as friendly and informative to new users, especially given its position as the “non default” or “breakaway” sub. The current /btc sticky saying "Welcome to the Wiki" doesn't even have any content in it and I feel this is a bit of a wasted opportunity to create an informative resource that new users will see by default and everyone else can link to instead of retyping things over and over about the history and difference between the subs. Here's what I've written as a starting point. I've done my best to keep it as concise and relevant as possible but in all honesty it is a complicated issue and a short but effective explanation is basically impossible. I hope the community can expand/improve on it further. Quick bit about me I got into Bitcoin in October 2013, when /Bitcoin had around 40k subscribers if I remember correctly, so by now I've actually personally experienced a large portion of Bitcoin's history - including the events preceding and since the creation of this sub. I have been an active and popular poster on /Bitcoin for almost all of that time, until the split and my subsequent banning. With the recent censorship fiasco, I'm finding I have to reiterate the same points over and over again to explain to newer users what happened with the /Bitcoin vs /btc split, questions about hard forks, what is likely to happen in the future and so on. So I put a couple of hours into writing this post to save myself the trouble in future.
There is a TL:DR; at the bottom, but it is exactly that. If you skip straight to the TL:DR; then don’t expect sympathy when you post questions that have already been covered in the lengthy and detailed main post.
New to Bitcoin?
I am totally new to Bitcoin. What is it? How does it work? Can/should I mine any? Where can I buy some? How do I get more information? All of these questions are actually really well covered in the /Bitcoin FAQ. Check it out in a new tab here. Once you've got a bit of a handle on the technology as a whole, come back here for the rest of the story.
What's the difference between /btc and /Bitcoin? What happened to create two such strongly opposed communities? Why can't I discuss /btc in /Bitcoin? Historically, the /Bitcoin subreddit was the largest and most active forum for discussing Bitcoin. As Bitcoin grew close to a cap in the number of transactions it could process, known as the 1MB block size limit, the community had differing opinions on the best way to proceed. Note that this upcoming issue was anticipated well ahead of time, with Satoshi's chosen successor to lead the project Gavin Andresen posting about it in mid 2015. Originally, there was quite a broad spread of opinions - some people favoured raising the blocksize to various extents, some people favoured implementing a variety of second layer solutions to Bitcoin, probably most people thought both could be a good idea in one form or another. This topic was unbelievably popular at the time, taking up almost every spot on the front page of /Bitcoin for weeks on end. Unfortunately, the head moderator of /Bitcoin - theymos - felt strongly enough about the issue to use his influence to manipulate the debate. His support was for the proposal of existing software (called Bitcoin Core) NOT to raise the blocksize limit past 1MB and instead rely totally on second layer solutions - especially one called Segregated Witness (or SegWit). With some incredibly convoluted logic, he decided that any different implementations of Bitcoin that could potentially raise the limit were effectively equivalent to separate cryptocurrencies like Litecoin or Ethereum and thus the block size limit or implement other scaling solutions were off-topic and ban-worthy. At the time the most popular alternative was called Bitcoin XT and was supported by experienced developers Gavin Andresen and Mike Hearn, who have since bothleft Bitcoin Core development in frustration at their marginalisation. Theymos claimed that for Bitcoin XT or any other software implementation to be relevant to /Bitcoin required "consensus", which was never well defined, despite it being seemingly impossible for everyone to agree on the merits of a new project if no one was allowed to discuss it in the first place. Anyone who didn't toe the line of his vaguely defined moderation policy was temporarily or permanently banned. There was also manipulation of the community using the following tactics - which can still be seen today:
Default thread sorting changed to "controversial" in selected threads instead of "best" like nearly every other subreddit
Comment/upvote scores hidden by default (combined with the previous point this prevented theymos and other unpopular mods like StarMaged and BashCo from ending up at the bottom of every thread they posted in)
The implementation of a custom CSS sheet that disguises long threads of [removed] comments. This was especially effective at the time as the censorship was obvious since threads were becoming wastelands of hundreds of deleted comments, similar to other Reddit throw downs like GamerGate
This created enormous uproar among users, as even many of those in favour of Bitcoin Core thought it was authoritarian to actively suppress this crucial debate. theymos would receive hundreds of downvotes whenever he posted: for example here where he gets -749 for threatening to ban prominent Bitcoin business Coinbase from the subreddit. In an extraordinary turn of events, Theymos posted a thread which received only 26% upvotes in a sample size of thousands announcing that he did not care if even 90% of users disagreed with his policy, he would not change his opinion or his moderation policy to facilitate the discussion the community wanted to have. His suggested alternative was instead for those users, however many there were, to leave. Here are Theymos' exact words, as he describes how he intends to continue moderating Bitcoin according to his own personal rules rather than the demands of the vast majority of users, who according to him clearly don't have any "real arguments" or "any brains".
Do not violate our rules just because you disagree with them. This will get you banned from /Bitcoin , and evading this ban will get you (and maybe your IP) banned from Reddit entirely. If 90% of /Bitcoin users find these policies to be intolerable, then I want these 90% of /Bitcoin users to leave. Both /Bitcoin and these people will be happier for it. I do not want these people to make threads breaking the rules, demanding change, asking for upvotes, making personal attacks against moderators, etc. Without some real argument, you're not going to convince anyone with any brains -- you're just wasting your time and ours. The temporary rules against blocksize and moderation discussion are in part designed to encourage people who should leave /Bitcoin to actually do so so that /Bitcoin can get back to the business of discussing Bitcoin news in peace.
/btc was therefore born in an environment not of voluntary departure but of forced exile. This forced migration caused two very unfortunate occurrences:
It polarised the debate around Bitcoin scaling. Previously, there was a lot of civil discussion about compromise and people with suggestions from all along the spectrum were working to find the best solution. That was no longer possible when a moderation policy would actively suppress anyone with opinions too different from Theymos. Instead it forced everyone into a "with us or against us" situation, which is why the /btc subreddit has been pushed so far in favour of the idea of a network hard fork (discussed below).
It has distracted Bitcoin from its mission of becoming a useful, global, neutral currency into a war of information. New users often find /Bitcoin and assume it to be the authoritative source of information, only to later discover that a lot of important information or debate has been invisibly removed from their view.
Since then, like any entrenched conflict, things have degenerated somewhat on both sides to name calling and strawman arguments. However, /btc remains committed to permitting free and open debate on all topics and allowing user downvotes to manage any "trolling" (as /Bitcoin used to) instead of automatic shadow-banning or heavy-handed moderator comment deletion (as /Bitcoin does now). Many users in /Bitcoin deny that censorship exists at all (it is difficult to see when anyone pointing out the censorship has their comment automatically hidden by the automoderator) or justify it as necessary removal of "trolls", which at this point now includes thousands upon thousands of current and often long-standing Bitcoin users and community members. Ongoing censorship is still rampant, partially documented in this post by John Blocke For another detailed account of this historical sequence of events, see singularity87 s posts here and here. /btc has a public moderator log as demonstration of its commitment to transparency and the limited use of moderation. /Bitcoin does not. Why is so much of the discussion in /btc about the censorship in /Bitcoin? Isn't a better solution to create a better community rather than constantly complaining? There are two answers to this question.
Over time, as /btc grows, conversation will gradually start to incorporate more information about the Bitcoin ecosystem, technology, price etc. Users are encouraged to aid this process by submitting links to relevant articles and up/downvoting on the /new and /rising tab as appropriate. However, /btc was founded effectively as a refuge for confused and angry users banned from /Bitcoin and it still needs to serve that function so at least some discussion of the censorship will probably always persist (unless there is a sudden change of moderation policy in /Bitcoin).
The single largest issue in Bitcoin right now is the current cap on the number of transactions the network can process, known as the blocksize limit. Due to the censorship in /Bitcoin, open debate of the merits of different methods of addressing this problem is impossible. As a result, the censorship of /Bitcoin (historically the most active and important Bitcoin community forum) has become by proxy the single most important topic in Bitcoin, since only by returning to open discussion would there be any hope of reaching agreement on the solution to the block size limit itself. As a topic of such central importance, there is naturally going to be a lot of threads about this until a solution is found. This is simply how Bitcoin works, that at any one time there is one key issue under discussion for lengthy periods of time (previous examples of community "hot topics" include the demise of the original Bitcoin exchange Mt Gox, the rise to a 51% majority hash rate of mining pool GHash.io and the supposed "unveiling" of Bitcoin's anonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto).
Bitcoin Network Hard Forks
What is a hard fork? What happens if Bitcoin hard forks? A network hard fork is when a new block of transactions is published under a new set of rules that only some of the network will accept. In this case, Bitcoin diverges from a single blockchain history of transactions to two separate blockchains of the current state of the network. With any luck, the economic incentive for all users to converge quickly brings everyone together on one side of the fork, but this is not guaranteed especially since there is not a lot of historical precedent for such an event. A hard fork is necessary to raise the block size limit above its 1MB cap. Why is /btc generally in favour of a hard fork and /Bitcoin generally against? According to a lot of users on /Bitcoin - a hard fork can be characterised as an “attack” on the network. The confusion and bad press surrounding a hard fork would likely damage Bitcoin’s price and/or reputation (especially in the short term). They point to the ongoing turmoil with Ethereum as an example of the dangers of a hard fork. Most of /Bitcoin sees the stance of /btc as actively reckless, that pushing for a hard fork creates the following problems:
The possibility of an irrevocable community divergence, as has happened in Ethereum (discussed below)
The chance of introducing new code bugs by forcing a network update without totally comprehensive software developer review
The possibility of reducing decentralisation in the network as higher hardware requirements puts greater strain on network nodes and miners
According to a lot of users on /btc - a hard fork is necessary despite these risks. Most of /btc sees the stance of /Bitcoin as passively reckless, that continuing to limit Bitcoin’s blocksize while remaining inactive creates the following problems:
Transaction fees are continuously rising as transactions compete for the limited space in each block
Confirmation times for any given transaction are also increasing, especially ones without a rapidly escalating fee attached
Fee and confirmation times is making BItcoin hostile to new users, who are confused by their difficulties with this “revolutionary” new technology
Restricting Bitcoin’s growth increases the likelihood it will be overtaken by another unrestricted cryptocurrency
Passively validating the stance of /Bitcoin to continue censoring the debate about this important issue
Bitcoiners are encouraged to examine all of the information and reach their own conclusion. However, it is important to remember that Bitcoin is anopen-source projectfounded on the ideal offree market competition (between any/all software projects, currencies, monetary policies, miners, ideas etc.). In one sense, /btc vs /Bitcoin is just another extension of this, although Bitcoiners are also encouraged to keep abreast of the top posts and links on both subreddits. Only those afraid of the truth need to cut off opposing information. What do Bitcoin developers, businesses, users, miners, nodes etc. think? Developers There are developers on both sides of the debate, although it is a common argument in /Bitcoin to claim that the majority supports Bitcoin Core. This is true in the sense that Bitcoin Core is the current default and has 421 listed code contributors but misleading because not only are many of those contributors authors of a single tiny change and nothing else but also many major figures like Gavin Andresen, Mike Hearn and Jeff Garzik have left the project while still being counted as historical contributors. Businesses including exchanges etc. A definite vote of confidence is not available from the vast majority of Bitcoin businesses, and wouldn't be binding in any case. The smart decision for most businesses is to support both chains in the event of a fork until the network resolves the issue (which may only be a day or two). Users Exact user sentiment is impossible to determine, especially given the censorship on /Bitcoin. Miners and Nodes Coin.dance hosts some excellent graphical representations of the current opinion on the network. Node Support Information Miner Support Information What do I do if the network hard forks?* Do we end up with two Bitcoins? Firstly, in the event of a hard fork there is no need to panic. All Bitcoins are copied to both chains in the case of a split, so any Bitcoins you have are safe. HOWEVER, in the event of a fork there will be some period of confusion where it is important to be very careful about how/why you spend your Bitcoins. Hopefully (and most likely) this would not last long - everyone in Bitcoin is motivated to converge into agreement for everyone's benefit as soon as possible - but it's impossible to say for sure. There isn't a lot of historical data about cryptocurrency hard forks, but one example is alternative cryptocurrency Ethereum that forked into two coins after the events of the DAO and currently exists as two separate chains, ETH (Ethereum) and ETC (Ethereum Classic). The Ethereum fork is not a good analogy for Bitcoin because its network difficulty target adjusts every single block, so a massive drop in hash rate does not significantly impede its functioning. Bitcoin’s difficult target adjusts only every 2100 blocks - which under usual circumstances takes two weeks but in the event of a hard fork could be a month or more for the smaller chain. It is almost inconceivable that a minority of miners would willingly spend millions of dollars over a month or more purely on principle to maintain a chain that was less secure and processed transactions far slower than the majority chain - even assuming the Bitcoins on this handicapped chain didn't suffer a market crash to close to worthless. Secondly, a hard fork is less likely to be a traumatic event than it is often portrayed in /Bitcoin:
The Bitcoin Core and /Bitcoin stated policy is to avoid a hard fork at all costs. So there is no risk of a hard fork on that side.
The Bitcoin XT/Classic/Unlimited and /btc side is prepared for a hard fork if necessary, but it will only come to pass if a clear majority of miners (and presumably users, although that's harder to determine) are already signalling that they would be onboard. There is no exact threshold value, but no miner is going to risk publishing a block larger than 1MB until they are very confident the network will follow them.
What Happens Now
How do I check on the current status of opinion? Coin.dance hosts some excellent graphical representations of the current opinion on the network. Node Support Information Miner Support Information Users are also welcome to engage in anecdotal speculation about community opinion based on their impression of the commentary and activity in /btc and /Bitcoin. Haven't past attempts to raise the blocksize failed? There is no time limit or statute of limitations on the number of attempts the community can make to increase the block size and scale Bitcoin. Almost any innovation in the history of mankind required several attempts to get working and this is no different. The initial attempt called Bitcoin XT never got enough support for a fork because key developer Mike Hearn left out of frustration at trying to talk around all the censorship and community blockading. The second major attempt called Bitcoin Classic gained massive community momentum until it was suddenly halted by the drastic implementation of censorship by Theymos described above. The most popular attempt at the moment is called Bitcoin Unlimited. /btc is neutral and welcoming to any and all projects that want to find a solution to scaling Bitcoin - either on-or off-chain. However, many users are suspicious of Bitcoin Core's approach that involves only SegWit, developed by a private corporation called Blockstream and that has already broken its previous promises in a document known as the Hong Kong Agreement to give the network a block size limit raise client along with Segregated Witness (only the latter was delivered) . What if the stalemate is irreconcilable and nothing ever happens? Increasing transaction fees and confirmation times are constantly increasing the pressure to find a scaling solution - leading some to believe that further adoption of Bitcoin Unlimited or a successor scaling client will eventually occur. Bitcoin Core's proposed addition of SegWit is struggling to gain significant support and as it is already the default client (and not censored in /Bitcoin) it is unlikely to suddenly grow any further. If the stalemate is truly irreconcilable, eventually users frustrated by the cost, time and difficulty of Bitcoin will begin migrating to alternative cryptocurrencies. This is obviously not a desirable outcome for long standing Bitcoin supporters and holders, but cannot be ignored as the inevitable free market resort if Bitcoin remains deadlocked for long enough.
Bitcoin is at its transaction capacity and needs to scale to onboard more users
The community was discussing different ways to do this until the biased head moderator of /BitcoinTheymos got involved
Theymos, started an authoritarian censorship rampage which culminated in telling 90% of /Bitcoin users to leave. /btc is where they went. Here is the thread where it all started. Note the 26% upvoted on the original post, the hundreds of upvotes of community outcry in the comments and the graveyard of [removed] posts further down the chain. Highly recommended reading in its entirety.
To this day, /Bitcoin bans all discussion of alternative scaling proposals and /btc
Bitcoin is about freedom, and can’t function effectively with either an artificially restricted transaction cap or a main community forum that is so heavily manipulated. This subreddit is the search for solutions to both problems as well as general Bitcoin discussion.
Debate continues in /btc, and generally doesn't continue in /Bitcoin - although posts referencing /btc or Bitcoin Unlimited regularly sneak past the moderators because it is such a crucial topic
Eventually one side or the other breaks, enough miners/nodes/users get on one side and Bitcoin starts scaling. This may or may not involve a hard fork.
If not, fees and average confirmation times continue to rise until users migrate en masse to an altcoin. This is not an imminent danger, as can be seen by the BTC marketcap dominance at its historical levels of 80+% but could change at any time
Notice the similarities between Mt Gox and BG hacks...
The co-incidence is quite startling. These are excerpts from the Mt gox hack wiki page:
On 19 June 2011, a security breach of the Mt. Gox bitcoin exchange caused the nominal rate of a bitcoin to fraudulently drop to one cent on the Mt. Gox exchange, after a hacker allegedly used credentials from a Mt. Gox auditor's compromised computer to transfer a large number of bitcoins illegally to himself. He used the exchange's software to sell them all nominally, creating a massive "ask" order at any rate. Within minutes the rate corrected to its correct value.
We noticed an order book flaw with BG too. No one actually knows what caused this as Bomber had no technical communication whatsoever apart from shitposting.
On 7 February 2014, Mt. Gox halted all bitcoin withdrawals. The company said it was pausing withdrawal requests “to obtain a clear technical view of the currency processes”. The company issued a press release on February 10, 2014, stating that the issue was due to transaction malleability: “A bug in the bitcoin software makes it possible for someone to use the bitcoin network to alter transaction details to make it seem like a sending of bitcoins to a bitcoin wallet did not occur when in fact it did occur. Since the transaction appears as if it has not proceeded correctly, the bitcoins may be resent. Mt Gox is working with the bitcoin core development team and others to mitigate this issue.”
With BG its the exchange once again claiming a "bug" in the nano protocol, which most people have mis understood as "double spend"
A poll of 3,000 Mt. Gox customers by CoinDesk indicated that 68% of polled customers were still awaiting funds from Mt. Gox. The median waiting time was between one and three months, and 21% of poll respondents had been waiting for three months or more. On 20 February 2014, with all withdrawals still halted, Mt. Gox issued yet another statement, not giving any date for the resumption of withdrawals. Bitcoin rates quoted by Mt. Gox dropped to below 20% compared to exchanges, reflecting the market’s estimate of the unlikelihood of Mt. Gox paying its customers.
Wont be surprised if over 68% of BG customers were awating withdrawals for more than one month. Again we saw BG rate much lower compared to other exchanges XRB was on
On 24 February 2014, Mt. Gox suspended all activity, and hours later its website went offline, returning a blank page. A leaked alleged internal crisis management document claimed that the company was insolvent, after having lost 744,408 bitcoins in a theft which went undetected for years.
This is seemingly a repeat of history. Mt gox was one of the big btc exchanges at that time and quite possibly did not understand the risks involved in this industry. Similar situation to BG.. I doubt if BG ever carried out any kind of penetration testing of its own systems. All evidence we have seen of how BG operated points to BG being run out of a basement.
Mt. Gox released a statement saying, “The company believes there is a high possibility that the bitcoins were stolen,” blamed hackers, and began a search for the missing bitcoin. Chief Executive Karpeles said technical issues opened up the way for fraudulent withdrawals.
Right now in crypto, everything is moving much faster. Mt gox order book bug was in 2011 but the hack was reported in 2014, though Mt gox claimed the hack occurred years ago. BG's order book bug was in Dec 2017 and the hack reported in Feb 2018.. by looking at the transactions we can predict the funds were drained around October.
Ethereum is almost certainly the number 2 coin in comedy gold. It will likely surpass Bitcoin in comedy gold long before it passes it in market cap. Thanks in large part to a spam-based marketing campaign on Reddit, it also has a dedicated base of critics. After its IPO, it was known as “Inthereum” for a while, infinitely powerful of course, as vaporware can do anything. It had a major version release, then another. Finally, a major smart contract, in terms of valuation, came along: The DAO. Not to be confused with other DAOs, before and after. The DAO was the biggest. It was going to be the best; it already was the best! Euphoria was off the charts. Until just a few months in, a bug was found. And the killer app became the flash point. What could they do? Well, hard fork and give the money back, of course! And so they did. “Code is Law”; but this is actually good for Ethereum because “[a]lthough some do question the analogy ‘code is law’. I do not. We just found out that we have a supreme court, the community!”  After the D'OH, Ethereum struggles to top its ATH comedy gold, but there is still a bright future for popcorn and comedy gold from Ethereum.
5 Largest Veins of Comedy Gold
Here are the largest comedy gold veins in Ethereum in potential reserves in our estimation in approximately descending order:
Cultlike euphoria - Now, this can certainly be said to be common to almost all cryptocurrencies. But Ethereum seems special here, even more than Bitcoin's community. There is a real belief here that this coin is going to change the world. This helps play into a "this is very good for Ethereum" mindset, wherein even the D'OH fork was a great success!
Vitalik Buterin - The best name in cryptocurrency! Young genius central to Ethereum and almost universally seen as the most important leader in the project. In our view, his endorsement and leadership during the D'OH fork led to that route being taken. That is, we believe if he had opposed it from the start, he may have been able to prevent it or at least have led to what is now called ETC being the dominant of the two.
And so in our view, Mr. Buterin runs a billion dollar cryptocurrency right now. He and his team seem to have done reasonably well so far; it seems likely they'll continue to thrive. To the best of my knowledge, confirmed on /ethereum, there hasn't been a drug market implemented in Ethereum or trading with ETH so far. But while it seems like a terrible idea, because of the lack of privacy and proven mutability of contracts, it seems like eventually there's going to be a major drug market accepting ETH just because it has such a high value. And, they point out, monero and zcoin’s core privacy feature will apparently be available on ETH after this next fork, so look forward to anonymous ETH fueling drug markets! And then the interesting question will be raised of how Chief Justice Buterin will rule on the case, whether it is worthy of an intervention or not. If not a drug market, then another buggy and hacked contract. Or a hacked exchange, and the question of whether to make it or its users whole, or "let the hacker win".
DAOs - From the beginning, it was proposed that Ethereum itself and its reserve fund would be turned into a DAO. How exactly this was going to happen would be figured out later of course. There was an initial estimate of 2016 for the transition.
Of course, in 2016, The DAO and the D'OH happened. I'm not aware of a current further push to put all of ETH's future funding into a DAO. But I'm sure the topic will resurface. And it will be hilarious on so many levels. The DAO actually collapsed too soon for peak comedy gold extraction. It had been predicted that there would be no consensus on any proposals and that nothing would be funded, and that there would be gold from that. But it was just a few months in when the bug was found. And while the D'OH fork was certainly a rich vein of comedy gold, it wasn't as rich as what the DAO could have been if it had floundered around for a year or so before the hack. Surprisingly, there's actually a running, apparently working DAO on ETH that was started even before The DAO: digixDAO. If it keeps on running, it will continue to be hilarious as other DAOs fail to learn from it. If it fails, there's all the more hilarity for Ethereum, making it the platform where anything complicated enough to look like an original use case will break. The very existence of digix is proof-of-comedy-gold.
Immutability - The whole central notion of immutability is going to be a recurring question for Ethereum after the D'OH. While there was a lot of sentiment of "just this once and never again" at the time, there will someday be another major issue, and the precedent will mean that at least a major debate among the community will be had. Ethereum is "mostly immutable". Bitcoin is far better protected here, because while it's true they've hard forked to fix a bug before, that was years ago and the community is far more fractured now. Ethereum has a demonstrated capacity to do both routine and controversial hard forks. This strength is also a challenge, as it will invite constant legal and ethical questions about when it's appropriate to modify the chain itself with a fork: that is, rolling back some or all transactions after major bugs, thefts, frauds, and so forth.
Concentration of funds - This one I'm just guessing at. Although rich lists do exist, obviously one entity like an exchange could pool funds in an address without one person owning that much, or one person could splits their coins among many accounts. But it gives a rough guide. In Bitcoin, the top 113 addresses, having more than 10,000 BTC, in total are 17.46% of the current supply [ 2 ]. And in Ethereum, it's true that the top two accounts are marked as exchange accounts [ 3 ]. Still, having lots of funds concentrated in a single exchange wallet seems to still have some potential for comedy gold. In Ethereum, the top 50 addresses have more than double the proportion of the top 113 in Bitcoin, a bit over 40% of the current supply. My guess would be there are still a lot of people who invested heavily in the initial ICO who have held onto a significant portion of their initial ETH. While some of these top addresses are exchanges, I think there are probably many individuals represented in here as well, and every one of them is a multimillionaire from this account alone.
Of course, so far, because ETH is still smaller than BTC in overall market cap, these top addresses aren't as huge as the top addresses in Bitcoin in current market value. But if ETH were to overtake BTC's current position with a relatively unchanged distribution, there would be some real comedy gold coming off this factor. Cribs could have a spin-off Ethereum series. This concentration was a part of making The D'OH what it was in my view as well: in Bitcoin, there would never have been so much of the coin tied up in one particular venture, at least not now. But in Ethereum, this concentration and groupthink can combine to hilarious effect.
A Brief History of Comedy Gold in Ethereum:
“Laws, like sausages, cease to inspire respect in proportion as we know how they are made” - John Godfrey Saxe In the beginning, there was an offering. The greatest coin the world had ever seen; step right up and buy it! There was even code; this is no vaporware! Sure, there was more work to be done, but the ICO would fund that work, the founders would get a little, and create a reserve for the future and the rest would be mineable. There was also some of the most vociferous objections on BCT, declaring that the stake allocated to the founders was too large, pointing to other coins which had done smaller or done without. Arguing against the reserve; arguing against having a presale at all. Some people, of course, completely failing to read the documentation accurately to see what was even being proposed. And an almost complete radio silence from this large team working around the clock on Ethereum. It took some months from when the initial ANN was made until the sale actually started, but by the time they had their sale, they had perhaps the best documentation at launch to-date. Of course, there were some areas which seemed to lack some detail, like the budgeting, but never mind that, it was finally launching! Launching the sale, at least. In July and August of 2014, Ether was first sold. It was described as “fuel” for the virtual machine they were going to build [ 4 ]. And then, a year later, Ethereum was released live. By July 2016, it had already had its first major crisis after The DAO was hacked and the D’OH fork introduced in response. But the fact that Ethereum was ever released, and that it was released so quickly, is truly incredible. There was more than one person who thought that the stated goals of Ethereum were not possible. And, of course, many initial goals and deadlines didn’t happen. But unlike the railbirds on BCT were convinced, the team did not fail nor did it run off with the money. They were given a blank check, and they actually delivered a working product which has been successful so far financially. Of course, having its flagship smart contract go belly-up quite so quickly after having finally gotten a “killer app” seems rather unfortunate. The oracle problem (the question of how to reliably relate smart contracts to the outside world) seems unresolved, but partial solutions are inevitable and can only serve to make increasingly complex and thus popcorn-loaded contracts possible. Right now, all seems relatively quiet. But rest assured, there remains plenty of euphoria and gas to drive many more cycles of comedy gold production. Ether huffers need something to throw their ETH at. The more complicated; the better! Given some of the creations that have been made in NXT, for instance, a few more years of creativity on ETH should yield some very complicated and pop-corn rich smart contracts.
I was relaxing in my office, waiting for business. It was a dingy little one-room affair, but it would serve for now. Particularly with no clients. I had poured myself a double shot, and was about to enjoy it, when suddenly the door opened. A man walked in, familiar somehow although I couldn't place him. I reached out my hand instinctively, and instead of shaking it, he handed me a dollar. "Hello?" He pointed at the sign in the window, advertising a promotional one dollar gold survey for the first client. Always astute, I quickly surmised he wished to hire me. "Of course, sir! What coin would you like?" "Ethereum." "Certainly! And may I have your name for the log?" "Tyler Durdan." And with that, my newest client left. I downed my double and poured a generous triple to follow it. This was going to be a long day. Ethereum was the ultimate prize in my line of work. The coin which proved the adage that truth is stranger than fiction; which had proved itself a lucrative source of comedy gold. And who am I? Guy Noir, private comedy gold surveyor. I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Premined scamcoins crashing on noname exchanges. I watched popcorn glitter in the dark on forgotten the BCT threads. Popcorn junkies strung out on a high, and I've delivered them more comedy gold, popcorn, salt and butter. There is never enough. A dark night in a world that never sleeps and knows how to keep its secrets...But on the 12th Floor of the Acme Building, one man is still trying to find the answers to life's persistent questions: Guy Noir, private comedy gold surveyor. Thank you, Narrator. Now, as I was saying, Ethereum is overloaded with gold. But the core is pretty straightforward: Ethereum promised "smart contracts". Immutable. Turing-complete. This was what Bitcoin lacked. The bee's knees. Crypto 2.0. What could go wrong? We'll skip over the "Inthereum" period. Perhaps the vaporware criticism was never fair: from their version, they had Proof-of-Concept code; they went through some iterations and eventually got to release. Let's note clearly that there was plenty of time to determine some sort of official policy for what to do about a buggy or improperly written contract losing money. In Bitcoin, every hack has been a SFYL event, although it’s true that a bug in the coin itself was hard forked away before. Mt. Gox tried to blame malleability, but there was never a fork to try to recover funds. In Ethereum, immutability was often talked about. So far as I saw in skimming, “what if” scenarios to undo bugs wasn’t brought up front-and-center. Nor was immutability being debated that I saw. So Ethereum releases. A major contract is launched, The DAO, which gets an astonishing portion of ETH invested. The world's largest crowd sale as they ultimately called it. All the major players in ETH buy into it, including Vitalik Buterin, the creator of Ethereum and the best name in cryptocurrency. Just as they're starting to get into the comedy gold that The DAO doesn't really have a purpose, a bug is discovered. And just as its leader is assuring everyone that no funds are at risk, the funds start being drained out of the contract by an unknown party. And suddenly immutable means "immutable unless we screw up on the biggest contract which everyone important has invested in heavily". Ethereum ultimately hard-forks to return investor funds and basically unwind The DAO. After claiming that the bug was in the contract, the coin itself is hard forked to fix the issue. And the first Ethereum clone results, one which simply does not follow the new hard fork. So the natural question is: when can a contract be changed? In the first page of the Ethereum launch, this question was implied by asking about what would happen if there were an assassination market hosted by a smart contract on Ethereum. Of course, in reality, Ethereum is not really functional enough at present to enforce such a contract, but the question remains in case Ethereum were to actually attain a functioning smart contract platform. Attempted reference to Tears in rain monologue, credit to Rutger Hauer Guy Noir and narrator text lovingly stolen from Prairie Home Companion's Guy Noir, by Garrison B. Keillor.
Filed for psych eval Twenty pages into the BCT ANN, I believe I have contracted cancer, again. I’m reminded of why I don’t generally go on BCT. As bad as altcoin forums tend to be for their circlejerking, it’s almost better than the, well, there’s really no way to put it other than FUD that inevitably appears in response to anything. Of course, it’s not paid shilling so much as it is willful and vocal ignorance. For all the critiques in that thread, most of them are utter nonsense and simply are misreading the initial information. On the other hand, it’s January 27th in the thread by now, with February 1st and the pre-sale start, and they don’t have their “prospectus” up yet. I also haven’t seen the change in mining rate yet. Side note: eMunie; wtf? I guess I missed something? Either it’s gone through a namechange or it’s dead, because a quick coinmarketcap search didn’t find anything. A comedy gold mining project for another day. Great; spoiler alert: fundraiser delayed apparently, so even more cancer to read through in that thread on the way to getting to a prospectus! The first 44 pages of the thread was summarized thus: “I want to believe. Why are you not speaking to us? Throw me a bone. Just tell me what I want to hear, and I'll gladly throw my money in.” [ 5 ] Would that I had only had to read that quote rather than all 44 pages, and facing many more. Pages and comments dragged on as I waded through the low-grade popcorn. When would this prospectus be released, so my torment would end? Oh god: a side-thread shows that by the time they get to April, there’s still no prospectus or presale date or estimate of when there may be a date [ 6 ]. It’s time to give up on reading through the cancerous mainthread on BCT and start jumping ahead pages to find the pre-sale and prospectus. Okay, finally, in July, they release documents and start the sale [ 7 ]. Good enough. I have mountains of links on my desk. Comedy gold is overflowing, but this is a survey expedition, not a mining operation. But by the time it’s surveyed, there’s always so much gold lined up to mine it gets hard to leave it behind and leave with the samples. It’s time to hammer out some copy and close this file. Folks, we hope you’ve enjoyed this descent into madness and comedy gold brought to you by the Comedy Gold Survey Company and our patron Tyler Durden. Do you need more comedy gold in your life? Of course you do! So please donate today; every $1 helps! I’ve added a new special: $5 lets you choose the next coin to be surveyed! Thanks again to Tyler Durden, and I will now be re-watching Fight Club and questioning my sanity. Cheers y’all! Resources:
[ 6 ] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=448923.msg6438910#msg6438910 - April 28th, 2014; Ursium says “We won't issue further comments regarding the Ether Sale, until we have completely finalized the framework for it. In the meantime enjoy the free technology, people are already building apps on it, which is exciting Smiley” ; this official Q&A thread then abandoned; these guys clearly hates BCT as much as I do
[ ] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=412878.msg4497464#msg4497464 charleshoskinson, January 14th, 2014; “Current plans are for a 60 day fundraiser, starting from Miami on; however, we are still exploring this and thus will set something in stone closer to the conference.” - fundraiser launches in less than a month but date not even set yet; also “No, the rate of inflation is always decreasing and comparable with bitcoin.” and “In terms of ROI, this should be reflected with a positive ROI.” ; also “As for P2P exchange, we have a close relationship with Open Transactions and combined with a namecoin style contract provided in the whitepaper and bitmessage makes a significantly more efficient distributive exchange than is possible with BitShares. Trust is not required as auditing can be done on Ethereum blockchain and we wouldn't suffer any bloat. “
[ ] https://github.com/ethereum/wiki/wiki/White-Paper - Accessed Feb 12, 2017; shows a different version of the issuance model, including the variable presale price modification and reduced future mining. But constant mining reward is still shown and fixed.
[ ] https://forum.ethereum.org/discussion/2007/whitepaper-pdf - Thread from April 2015 where Stephen Tual says changes in whitepaper were “as to how significant these were, probably not much”; “We had a hosted copy of the WP on our .org website, but that is now pointing to the github (as the pdf, by definition, was static).”
[ ] https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,1854.0.html Thread which goes into Bytemaster response to initial Ethereum proposal; points out that running something complicated like Bitshares on Ethereum would be cost prohibitive. Also predicts Ethereum becomes PoS.
[ ] https://github.com/slockit/DAO “Our Standard DAO Framework allows people to create Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) governed by the code in this repository written immutably to the blockchain.”
[ ] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=428589.msg4690140#msg4690140 - “I think this whole project will get forced underground onto the Tor network in short order because the illegal stuff will be in the blockchain instead of externalized. It will have to directly compete with bitcoin with both hands tied behind its back because it will be hard for people to even find a safe copy of the program to download. Am I to understand that you will not have a legal opinion supporting what you are doing?” - Seth Otterstad
[ ] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=428589.msg4718951#msg4718951 “We will switch our PoW from Dagger to a hybrid PoW/PoS system to be developed via a bountied competition conducted by our university partners and open to the general community for participation. The terms will be announced in late february including judges, specifications and the university partners.” - jubalix quoting some Ethereum promotional document
[ ] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=428589.msg4740396#msg4740396 “Creating the platform with new features is one thing. Competing in the real world of hype, adoption, and social marketing with Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Dogecoin is a completely different beast. Especially, when every coin is based on ever changing software. The software is secondary to the marketing and socialization at this stage in the ballgame.” - DieJohnny
For those who haven't seen it, Roman just posted the update we've all been waiting for on bitfloor.com:
We are pleased to announce that we are ready to start returning USD funds. Please follow the instructions on the withdraw page. If your account balance is over 3000 USD, you must first open an account with IAFCU and then provide your IAFCU account number.
=== === === Update July 6, 12:56 PM Pacific: I'm already getting emails and seeing responses here about various login/withdrawal/balance-related issues. I imagine it may take a few days for all the ins and outs of the refund process to become clear to all of us. If you are experiencing USD withdrawal-related issues (such as $0 balance showing up on your account when you know you had a positive balance) that are not resolved by 7/12, please send me a PM or email and I will start tracking those issues and reporting them to those on the update email list. If you would like to be added to that list, PM me your email address. Update July 6, 12:59 PM Pacific:sodoubleoggood reports that Bitfloor has removed all pending withdrawals, so for users who were seeing $0 balances due to pending withdrawals, check your account again to see if that's cleared up. Update July 7, 10:36 PM Pacific: I have been receiving numerous reports of bugs and account access issues from users who are trying to submit their withdrawal requests. I am keeping track of these comments, but because Bitfloor just announced the refund process yesterday, I am asking everyone to give Bitfloor one more week (until 7/12) to start working through their backlog of customer support emails. If by the end of next week there does not appear to be progress, I will create a "master list" of issues reported to me and will use the email update list to communicate progress on those issues. Update July 10, 2:18 PM Pacific: Understandably, a lot of people want to know when they're going to get their refunds now that they've submitted ID info to Bitfloor or IAFCU. I don't have any information from Bitfloor or IAFCU suggesting a specific timeline, but here are my thoughts on the matter. Those in the < $3,000 camp will be wondering about the timeline for verification of docs uploaded via Bitfloor. In the last few days before the exchange shut down, document verifications were taking 5-10 business days, so I could imagine the process taking the same amount of time now (and maybe longer since hundreds of customers are re-submitting their documents all at the same time). I don't believe Bitfloor has a large staff doing this manual processing the way that MtGox does, so I don't expect Bitfloor can get through thousands of verifications a day like they do. Likewise, people in the IAFCU camp may need to wait several days for a phone call. IAFCU is a very small credit union (and it may in fact be Jordan alone doing all account verifications), and if my spreadsheet represents, say, half of all Bitfloor users, IAFCU may have already received a couple hundred new applications in the last few days, each of which requires a telephone confirmation step (and possibly even a confirmation of a donation sent to a local charity). So I won't be surprised if it takes a few more days for IAFCU applications to get processed. I know it's frustrating that it's taking so long. But I still think our best bet continues to be patience. Update July 10, 10:42 PM Pacific: SpottedMarley from bitcointalk.org posted this message indicating that he has spoken to a person at IAFCU who is working on processing the new account applications. He includes a lot of interesting details. === === === Here's what's currently appearing after I log in to my Bitfloor account. [Right-hand sidebar showing my BTC and USD balance] [Left-hand content area with the following instructions:] USD Refunds In order to receive your USD refund, please read and follow the instructions below. If your USD balance is 3000 USD or more, you must first open an account with IAFCU and provide your IAFCU account information and NOT your current bank account information. Everyone is required to provide the following information:
Copy of government ID
The cost for processing a refund (set by IAFCU) is 2.50 USD which will be deducted from your account balance. If your balance is below 2.50 USD we cannot process your refund at this time. International Users should fill out the information below and use a SWIFT code in place of a routing number. Copy of Government ID The photo must be clear, cropped to the dimensions of the scanned document, and upright. [UPLOAD BUTTON] === === === Here's the email response I received from Internet Credit Union after I submitted my account application: Dear AudenX, Ok so you have submitted your application for a new Account- If I were you I would saying: Now What? First Step The next business day a real person in the good ole US of A will review what you sent and perhaps wonder why you forgot some information we really need. Second Step This real person (maybe even me) will call and verify you are really you. So please pick up the phone or at least call us back. When we call, answer the phone as three things will happen:
We are required to “Know our customers”. This means that personal touch of actually speaking with you and verifying some of the information on your application.
We will give your account number . If you want a really cool account number you can request one by donating either dollars or bitcoins. Hey we are a not for profit and need to keep fees down for everyone. Accounts numbers from 100-9,999 can be gotten by helping support us. The lower or more special the number the higher the donation.
We will ask you if you want to set up A2A transfer from another financial institution. Then you can transfer money from one those big banks that helped bring down the economy just a few years ago to us little but good guys that care about your financial well being.
Third Step – Sign onto online banking: READ THIS, perhaps even print it and put on your frig next to those fruit or poetry word magnets, and it will save us both lots puzzled states at a screen: Log on now the day we call you and we mean today: You need to log on with 24 hours of us creating your account and contacting you otherwise we will have to reset your PW. And why take up your time on long call with us when you could be out there saving the world. How do I log on?: We encourage people to jump from our home page: IAFCU.ORG. Also then you can read my old and new blogs and make my dad happy. What do I do if its my first time?: Mainly answer the phone! Part of being with a Credit Union is that we like to get to know our members and we will personally call you and walk you through how to get on and navigate online banking. Name that Account: Once on you may want to go to Nick Names Under XXX and change the names of your accounts. Primary Share is called a Savings Account in the banking world and Share Draft is checking account. Yup we can help you with that. THANKS FOR JOINING AND BECOMING AN OWNER OF THE CREDIT UNION Jordan Modell
This is a beta e-mail response please tell us how you like it. As with most things about us we love your input
=== === === df546rtghr65y4 asked an important question: So how is it that the IAFCU is able to issue accounts to people outside NJ? Very good question. This may seem weird to some customers who are new to credit unions (Wikipedia article), but if you've never used a credit union before, one of the first things to know is that their charters require them to have a well-defined "field of membership" that limits who is able to become a member. In the case of IAFCU, the field of membership is those who live or worship in New Brunswick, NJ. However, IAFCU can satisfy the field of membership requirement for those outside New Brunswick if they make a small donation to a New Brunswick-based nonprofit. So for those who (like me) are opening an IAFCU account but reside outside of New Brunswick, here's the info you're going to receive from IAFCU when they call you (from an email exchange I had with Jordan):
Please note that if you live outside New Brunswick NJ the only other requirement is donate $5 (usually we ask $10 but understand circumstances) to a local charity. There are four who are bitcoin friendly and worthy the one we deal with the most is Elijah's Promise they are a soup kitchen-food pantry and a lot more. They have no relation to us and it is tax deductible. We can tell you about the others when we call you.
I think the Berlin Wall Principle will end up applying to Blockstream as well: (1) The Berlin Wall took *longer* than everyone expected to come tumbling down. (2) When it did finally come tumbling down, it happened *faster* than anyone expected (ie, in a matter of days) - and everyone was shocked.
Centralization is a double-edged sword. So far, centralization (and intertia, and laziness, and caution) has been favoring Blockstream. But if and when a congestion crisis comes, then the tide is gonna turn pretty quickly - and Blockstream's monopoly in terms of "code running on the network" is gonna evaporate quicker than anyone expected. How will this happen? Like this: Bitcoin is going to go into a crisis - not just the current agonizing slow-motion swamp of centralized fascist governance, but a real-time honking red alert involving a clogged-up network, with people freaking out screaming from the rooftops that millions of dollars in transactions are in limbo due to some pointless fucked-up 1 MB "blocksize limit". And at that point, people are going to get rid of the damn piece of broken cripple-code, immediately. End of story. Slow to crumble, fast to collapse Up till now, the Bitcoin governance crisis has been like slowly sinking into a swamp of quicksand. But once a real-time congestion crisis actually hits (and online forums become dominated by posts screaming "my transaction is stuck in limbo!!!"), then all the previous bullshit and bloviating from economic idiots about "fee markets" and "soft hard forks" or whatever other nonsense will be instantly forgotten. And at that point, there will be only 2 things that can happen:
Either Bitcoin dies, and $7 billion dollars in investor wealth evaporates into thin air; or
The simplest and safest "good enough" on-chain scaling upgrade gets rolled out ASAP - ie, we will get bigger blocks so fast it will make your head spin.
You don't need Blockstream - they need you When push comes to shove, people are going to remember pretty damn quick that open-source code is easy to patch. People are going to remember that you don't have to fly to meetings in Hong Kong or on some secret Caribbean island ... or post on Reddit for hours ... or spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on devs ... in order to simply change a constant in your code from 1000000 to 2000000. Eventually, we are going to remember what vote-with-your-CPU consensus looks like Remember all those hours you wasted on reddit? Remember all that time you wasted in some hidden downvoted sub-thread debating with some snarky little toxic troll who'd wandered over from a censored Milgram experiment forum full of brainwashed circlejerkers and foot-stomping fascists whose only adrenaline rush and power trip in life had evidently been when they would run around bloviating gibberish like "fee markets!" or "Austrian!" to the self-selected bunch of ignorant submissive sycophants who hadn't been banned from r\bitcoin yet? Well, when the real crisis hits, all that trivial online drama isn't going to matter any more. When the inevitable congestion crisis finally comes, it's only going to take a couple of mining pools plus a couple of exchanges to make a simple life-or-death business decision to un-install Blockstream's artificially crippled code and instead install code that has actually been upgraded to deal with the reality of mining and the marketplace - and then we're all going to see what actual vote-with-your-CPU consensus really looks like (instead of vote-with-your-sockpuppet pseudo-consensus on Reddit). This upgraded code could be Classic, or Unlimited, or even a modded version Core - it doesn't really matter. Code is code and money is money, and when push comes to shove, investors and miners aren't going to give a damn what some overpaid economic idiot from Blockstream said at some meeting in Hong Kong once, or what some fascist poisonous astroturfing shill-bot posted a million times on Reddit. Things usually move slow in Bitcoin-land - except when they move fast For an example of how fast the tide can turn, just look at a couple of major events from the past two days: (1) Coinbase is suddenly saying that:
Bitcoin looks a lot like hard-to-use antiquated assembly code - and Ethereum looks like an easy-to-use modern programming language;
Blockstream with its toxic, opaque and oppressive culture is scaring away all the new devs - who are flocking to alt-coins like Ethereum which has a healthy, transparent and welcoming culture.
Of course the good devs are flocking to Ethereum now. Any smart dev can see from a mile away that it would be suicide to try to contribute to Core/Blockstream - Blockstream don't want any new coders or new ideas, they are insular and insecure and they feel downright threatened by new coders with fresh ideas. They've shown this over and over again, eg:
when they repeatedly freaked out and went nuclear and refused to compromise whenever any dev made a simple safe scaling proposal, like 20 MB blocks, or 8 MB blocks, or 4 MB blocks, or 2 MB blocks, or Adaptive Blocks, etc etc.
scaring all the good devs and a lot of investors into alt-coins.
Blockstream has backed themselves into a corner At this point, people are starting to realize that Blockstream is a led by desperate and incompetent dead-enders. (There are some great coders over there such as Pieter Wuille - and Greg Maxwell is also a great Bitcoin coder, but he is toxic as a "leader".) Blockstream can't do capacity planning, they can't do threat assessment, they can't innovate, they can't prioritize, and they can't communicate. In the end, they're only destroying themselves - by censoring debate, and ostracizing existing innovators (eg, Mike Hearn and Gavin Andresen) - and scaring away potential new innovators. Remember, Blockstream != Bitcoin It's important to remember that Blockstream cannot destroy Bitcoin - any more than Mt Gox could. Once Blockstream is thoroughly discredited in the eyes of the Bitcoin community and the media, as "the company that almost strangled the Bitcoin network by trying to force blocks to be smaller than the average web page" - it's gonna be time for honey-badger jokes all over again. Blockstream's gargantuan conflicts-of-interest will be their downfall Blockstream is funded by insurance giant AXA - a company whose CEO is the head of the friggin' Bilderberg Group. (He's scheduled to move from CEO of AXA to CEO of HSBC soon. Out of the frying pan and into the fire.) AXA doesn't even want cryptocurrency to succeed anyways, because half of the 1 trillion dollars of so-called "assets" on their fraudulent balance sheet is actually nothing more than toxic debt-backed worthless derivatives garbage. (AXA has more derivatives than any other insurance company.) In other words, AXA's balance sheet will be exposed as worthless and the company will become insolvent (just like Lehman Brothers and AIG did in 2008) once real money like Bitcoin actually becomes dominant in the world economy - which will "uber" and knock down the whole teetering $1.2 quadrillion derivatives casino. Hmm... AIG... a giant insurance group whose alleged "assets" turned out to be just a worthless pile of toxic debt-backed derivatives on the legacy ledger of fantasy fiat, AIG who triggered the 2008 financial near-meltdown... Who does AIG remind me of... Oh yeah AXA... So let's put AXA in charge of paying for Bitcoin development! What could possibly go wrong?!? Blockstream's owners HATE Bitcoin Never forget:
This is the probably the most gigantic CONFLICT OF INTEREST in the history of economics. And it's something to think about, as we sit here wondering for years why Blockstream is not only failing to scale Bitcoin - but it's also actively trying to SABOTAGE anyone ELSE who tries to scale Bitcoin as well. So, be patient - and optimistic Viewed from one perspective, the fact that this blocksize battle has dragged on for years can be very depressing. But, viewed from another perspective, the fact that it's still going on is positive - because, for example, nobody really dares to say anymore that "blocks should be 1 MB" - since repeated studies have shown that the current hardware and infrastructure could easily handle 3-4 MB blocks, and Core/Blockstream's own precious SegWit soft-fork is going to need 3-4 MB blocks anyways. Plus, the only "strengths" that Blockstream had on its side actually turn out to be pretty weak upon closer scrutiny (money from investors like AXA who hate cryptocurrency, censorship from domain squatters who only know how to destroy communities, snark from sockpuppets who can't argue their way out of a wet paper bag on uncensored forums). In fact, if you were part of Blockstream, you'd be pretty demoralized that a rag-tag bunch of big-blocks supporters has been chipping away at you for the past few years, creating new forums, creating new coins, creating new products and services, exposing the economic ignorance of small-block dead-enders - and all the while, Blockstream hasn't been able to deliver on any of its so-called scaling roadmap. If it hadn't been for a few historical accidents (cheap energy behind the Great Firewall of China, plus the other "linguistic" firewall that has prevented many people in the Chinese-speaking community from seeing how much of the community actually rejects Blockstream, plus the other accidental fact that bigger blocks involve generalizing Bitcoin, which mathematically happens to require a hard fork), then Blockstream would not have been able to control Bitcoin development as long as it has. Yeah, they have done routine maintenance stuff and efficiency upgrades, like rewriting libsecp256k, which is great, and much appreciated - and Pieter Wuille's SegWit would be a great refactoring and clean-up of the code (if we don't let Luke-Jr poison it by packaging it as a soft-fork) - but the network also needs some simple, safe scaling. And the network is going to get simple, safe scaling - whenever it decides that it really, really wants it. And there's nothing that Blockstream can do to block that.
Bitcoin prices quoted by Mt. Gox dropped below 20% of the prices on other exchanges, reflecting the market's estimate of the unlikelihood of Mt. Gox ever paying their customers.   On 23 February, Karpelès resigned from the board of the Bitcoin Foundation ,  and all posts on the Mt. Gox Twitter account were removed.  Mt Gox is working with the bitcoin core development team and others to mitigate this issue.” On 17 February 2014, with all Mt. Gox withdrawals still halted and competing exchanges back in full operation, the company published another press release indicating the steps it claimed it was taking to address security issues. The Mt. Gox Bitcoin Fortune. At the time of Mt. Gox's collapse, Mark Karpeles owned a majority share in the company. To date, approximately 200,000 BTC of the original 850,000 lost have been recovered. The bankruptcy trustee handling these funds has sold approximately $387 million worth of BTC, but an estimated $1.8 billion remains. Mt. Gox, called "Mount Gox" or simply "Gox", was the most widely used bitcoin currency exchange market from shortly after its inception in 2010 to its insolvency late 2013. The market was closed February 25, 2014 and has since filed for bankruptcy protection in Japan and the United States, after losing 640 thousand bitcoins. Mt. Gox. In 2014 Mt. Gox, one of the world's first-ever bitcoin exchanges, ceased operations indefinitely following a series of hacking attacks that caused its customers to lose millions of dollars worth of crypto. Mark Karpelès, the CEO of Mt. Gox, faced several lawsuits and
You can no long do wire transfers to Mtgox from citibank. http://bitcoinviews.com/citibank-will-no-longer-process-any-transfers-to-mt-gox-due-to-association-... Java Project Tutorial - Make Login and Register Form Step by Step Using NetBeans And MySQL Database - Duration: 3:43:32. 1BestCsharp blog 7,431,020 views On 19 November 2013, the value of a bitcoin on the Mt. Gox exchange soared to a peak of US$900 after a United States Senate committee hearing was told by the FBI that virtual currencies are a ... The infamous Mt Gox Bitcoin Exchange has had another sell off in May of 2018. This time, 24,000 Bitcoin (Approx $225M) has been sold sending the price of Bitcoin plummeting under $9,000 USD. MtGox Bitcoins to BTC e Bitcoins in 50 seconds BITCOIN PRICE , BITCOIN FUTURE in doubt http://youtu.be/eO-yrpQpIT8 What is NAMECOIN BITCOIN'S First Fork http...